An Uncertain Future

When I first came to Ukraine, the country seemed open and welcoming to foreigners, not only at the level of regular people – which it still is – but also at the official government level.  Lately, it seems that the government is becoming less and less welcoming of foreigners, and depending on what happens on the international political front this year, it may become downright unfriendly to those of us from other countries who have chosen to be here.

I wrote recently that I had been wondering whether my time in Ukraine was coming to an end.  That was more about myself and whether I needed a change.  But as I survey the current political landscape here, I wonder if this may be a decision that will be made for me by others.

I first came to Ukraine in March of 2006 for a two-week visit.  At that time, the country was about a year or so into a new, more liberal visa regime for visitors from most Western countries.  It had become the first former Soviet republic to allow North Americans, Western Europeans, Australians, Japanese and similar folks to come for a 90-day visit with no visa at all.  Previously, you had to have an invitation and a visa, just as still exists in Russia and the other former republics.

This was a move by the pro-Western Yushchenko government to make it easier for Western tourists and business people to come here – and to bring their capital with them.  It was a smart move.  Even though those countries still maintained high visa barriers for Ukrainians visiting their countries, the Ukrainian government at that time recognized that it was to Ukraine’s advantage to make it easier for Westerners to come here and thus strengthen ties with the richer countries of the world.  They saw tourists spending money and foreign companies investing in the country.

So, many came - including me.  I got a five-year business visa so that, ostensibly, I would not have to keep going out every 90 days.  It turned out that a 90-day border run was still necessary, but the visa did keep me from having to stay out for 90 days before I could return.  Things worked pretty well until last year.

Under the Yanukovych government, immigration laws have changed considerably.  Foreigners can still visit for 90 days without a visa, but everything else has been made more difficult, and I am not so sure how long the 90-day regime will last.  Particularly, if the planned Association Agreement with the European Union is not successfully signed this year, it seems likely that Ukraine will join a Russian-led Customs Union, which might effectively close the door on such openness toward the West.

In the past months I have been engaged in a process of trying to secure a one-year work and residency permit, which would allow me to stay and work officially here without having to leave the country every 90 days.  But it is a bureaucratic nightmare because of recent changes in the law.  I don’t expect to see completion of this until March at the earliest, possibly not until April or May.  

And my 45-minute “interview” with immigration agents at Kyiv’s Borispyl Airport when I was on my way out of the country last month was an ominous sign.  Taken together, it definitely feels like Ukraine is (officially) becoming less friendly to foreigners.  So, what will happen?  Good question – who knows?

Most in Ukraine want the country to complete the Association Agreement with the EU.  One popular benefit of this would be to allow Ukrainians to travel to Europe without a visa.  And there would be a number of other economic benefits, which in total would pull Ukraine closer to the European sphere of influence and away from Russia. 

It seems like a no-brainer.  But “no-brainer” pretty much describes the current Ukrainian president, so there is no telling what the government will do.

While most people, including many in the government and the uber-rich "oligarchs," would benefit from a closer relationship with Europe, there are many in the government who would prefer to join Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in the Customs Union.  And Russia has been putting enormous pressure on Ukraine to do this.  One of Moscow's key weapons is the fact that Russia supplies Ukraine with almost all of its energy resources, and the Kremlin uses this as a hammer over Kyiv.

On the European side, there is a growing reluctance to let Ukraine join the European party because this country has not shown that it is ready to BE a European country and operate according to European rules.  Ukraine is a terribly corrupt place: according to Transparency International's 2012 Corruption Perception Index, it ranks 144th out of 176 countries in terms of honesty and openness in government and other institutions.  Corruption is the rule at every level of administration and government, most notably in the police, courts and the tax system. 

The Yushchenko government promised to clean up corruption, but they accomplished little.  And although the Yanukovych government also claims to be committed to reform things and clean up the corruption, it has actually gotten worse since he took office in 2010.  There is no dependable rule of law here.  Police, judges and others operate according to who can pay the highest bribes.  And key leaders of the political opposition have been jailed after rigged trials.  It’s a system that Europe wants no “association” with.

But Europe also does not want to “lose” Ukraine to Russian influence.  So although things stink here, many in Brussels are prepared to hold their noses and let Ukraine in anyway, just to keep this huge country from falling permanently into a Russian bear hug.

So where does that leave expats like me?  Well, it certainly leaves me uncertain about the future.  While I feel at home here among my friends, students and others, I feel increasingly uneasy about government attitudes and policies.  I fear that Ukraine may force my hand before long and give me no alternative but to give up and return to the USSA… where there is another government that makes me feel increasingly uneasy about its attitudes and policies.

Hmm… I wonder how things are going in New Zealand.